Head coach Mark Stoops finds a teaching moment during a recent practice — Photo by Keyli Chisesi (Go Big Blue Country)
The wait for the Kentucky football season is finally over, as the Wildcats will kick-off the 2017 season at Southern Miss tomorrow afternoon. Like the fans, I am ready to finally put the pre-season story lines to rest and begin writing about what matters most, the results of games.
Fall camp 2017 was full of interesting stories and some not so fun to write about, specifically the season ending injuries to Cole Mosier and Dorian Baker. I make my early predictions every season and then the day before kick-off, I give my final outlook for the year. So, let’s take a look at my fearless forecast for the 2017 Kentucky Wildcats.
@ Southern Miss
Thanks to UAB deciding to cancel their football program a few years back, the Wildcats will open vs. the Golden Eagles for the second consecutive season. However, round number two will take place in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. A year ago, the Wildcats held a 35-10 advantage, before a second half collapse resulted in a 44-35 embarrassing defeat at the then Commonwealth Stadium.
Following that loss, Mark Stoops seat was the hottest it had been. Fast forward 364 days and it’s hard to believe how much the storyline has changed. Kentucky enters the opener with the most buzz around the program in a decade, resulting in fans dreaming of a trip to Atlanta for an SEC championship.
The Golden Eagles return star running back Ito Smith and wide receiver Allenzae Staggers. Smith is the only current running back in the country with at least 3,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards for his career. Southern Miss has question marks at quarterback following the departure of Nick Mullins, who broke a number of school records.
Being at home, Southern Miss will put up a fight, but the Wildcats will prevail.
Prediction: Kentucky 38-17
Eastern Kentucky
Two years ago, the neighbors to the south nearly and should have pulled off an upset that I think would have spelled the end of the Mark Stoops era. Kentucky needed 14 unanswered 4th quarter points and a touchdown reception by Dorian Baker on 4th down to force overtime, before prevailing in the extra period.
Dean Hood, the Wildcats special teams coach, was the head coach that nearly pulled off that giant upset. One would think that the juniors and seniors, who were sophomores and freshman at the time, remember the roller coaster of that game. A huge talent gap and focus from the start will be the difference.
Prediction: Kentucky 45-10
@ South Carolina
This trip is one of the biggest games on the schedule and a great opportunity to get started off on the right foot in SEC play. The first conference game for Kentucky could be a game that swings the season north or south for the Wildcats. South Carolina will be fresh off an SEC game vs. Missouri, which I have them winning. This early conference clash could decide who is a contender or pretender in the Eastern division.
Kentucky has won three straight vs. the Gamecocks with all three coming down to the fourth quarter. The Wildcats scored 21 unanswered in 2014, escaping with a 45-38 victory on a defensive touchdown by Bud Dupree. A late interception by Chris Westry saved the Wildcats in 2015 and last year, all the Gamecocks could do was watch as Benny Snell iced the game in the Wildcat.
Expect the same type of game, as the Wildcats will have to make game winning plays down the stretch. South Carolina has already announced a blackout for the game and the Gamecocks will be looking to end the recent losing skid to Kentucky. With that being said, Kentucky has more talent and if they play, they should win another close one in this SEC East series.
Prediction: Kentucky 27-24
Florida
Kentucky has to beat the Gators at some point, right? The streak is at 30, which is the longest active losing streak in the country to an FBS opponent. The last time the Wildcats emerged victorious was 1986.
Kentucky has had plenty of chances to end the misery and they have a golden opportunity again this season. By Florida fans standards, the Gators have been down the last few years, yet the Wildcats have not been able to capitalize.
The home schedule includes Florida and Tennessee, two teams that finish ahead of Kentucky every year. If the Wildcats want to take that next step and climb the SEC ladder, they have to find a way to win one of those matchups. However, I think they have a better shot at the Vols. Kentucky has certainly closed the talent gap with Florida, but the Gators find a way to extend the streak to 31.
Prediction: Florida 31-28
Eastern Michigan
This will be the first ever matchup between the Wildcats and Eagles and two more will follow in 2019 and 2020. This matchup is a separate contract, while the last two are agreed upon to be a home-and-home series.
This matchup is perfectly placed in the schedule, following two tough conference matchups at South Carolina and vs. Florida. It will be nice if the Wildcats are sitting 4-0, or 3-1 heading into this matchup.
Prediction: Kentucky 51-14
Missouri
Missouri took a graceful fall from back-to-back East division titles, to a last place finish in the division a year ago. Kentucky had no trouble with the Tigers in Columbia in 2016, as Boom Williams and Benny Snell Jr. bullied their way to the end zone all game.
Missouri will present one of the most explosive offenses in the country, led by junior quarterback Drew Locke, but their defense is a work in progress. They will put up points, but Kentucky’s secondary can handle the Missouri passing attack.
Prediction: Kentucky 38-27
@ Mississippi State
The Wildcats will travel to Mississippi State fresh off a bye week, which has to benefit preparation heading into the annual East/West crossover matchup.
Thanks to a last second 51-yard field goal by Austin MacGinnis, Kentucky ended a 7 game losing streak to the Bulldogs a year ago. This matchup is one of the most even in SEC history, with both teams winning 22 of the 44 overall games played.
Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is back to lead the Bulldog offense in 2017 and many have him as an under the radar candidate for the Heisman. A mobile quarterback, Fitzgerald gave Kentucky trouble a year ago and historically, that type of player has always been a thorn in the Wildcats side.
This one will be close, as Mississippi State is much better than people are giving them credit. A Kentucky or Mississippi State win would not surprise me, but I will go with the Bulldogs in a close one.
Prediction: Mississippi State 30-27
Tennessee
I still find myself trying to get accustomed to seeing the Volunteers on the schedule in October, after it was an annual tradition for this game to be played the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
Head Coach Butch Jones is on thin ice with Tennessee fans, which is hard to believe after back-to-back 9 win campaigns. It’s amazing how fans forget how bad they were from 2008-2015.
If Tennessee starts off slow, a loss at Kentucky may spell the end for Butch Jones in Knoxville. The Volunteers make the trip to Lexington a week after playing on the road at Alabama. Tennessee will be replacing quarterback Josh Dobbs, who played like a Heisman trophy winner every time he faced Kentucky.
I feel like every team in the SEC East improved other than Tennessee. This is a great chance for Mark Stoops to get that signature SEC victory and I think it happens.
Prediction: Kentucky 37-31
Ole Miss
The Rebels find themselves in the midst of an NCAA investigation and fresh off the resignation of head coach Hugh Freeze, following a phone call he made to an escort service on a phone issued by the university.
The Wildcats catch a break by facing both Mississippi schools in the East/West draw. The Rebels will be led by sophomore quarterback Shea Patterson, who took over as the starter for the final three games of 2016 following an injury to Chad Kelly.
Patterson, ranked the No. 1 QB in the 2016 class, will be enough to keep the Rebels around. A former Wildcat player recently told me that Patterson might put up Heisman type numbers this season. Through three games last year, he passed for 880 yards and 6 touchdowns, while adding 169 on the ground.
Patterson is special, however, one man can’t beat a team. The Wildcats pick up an SEC victory to start the month of November.
Prediction: Kentucky 34-24
@ Vanderbilt
I tried to forget the last time the Wildcats made the trip south to Nashville, which resulted in one of the lowest points of the Mark Stoops era. The Wildcats looked lost and not focused during a loss at Vanderbilt in 2015.
Derek Mason is doing an excellent job with the Commodores, knocking off Tennessee at home to reach a bowl game a year ago. The Vanderbilt defense is improving and it will continue to do so under the leadership of Mason, the former defensive coordinator at Stanford.
The defense will be solid, but the Commodores also return running back Ralph Webb, who ranks 20th in SEC history with 3,342 career-rushing yards. The stand out back was injured during last season’s game with Kentucky, which the Wildcats won by a touchdown.
The weather will be cooler when this game rolls around and expect both teams to lean on their ground attacks. This will be a low scoring battle like last season, but the Wildcats pick up another SEC victory.
Prediction: Kentucky 20-13
@ Georgia
This is the only game on the schedule that I believe the Cats will struggle to compete in. I’m not by any means saying they can’t, I just think it is highly unlikely. Georgia, my pick to win the SEC East, returns quarterback Jacob Eason and its two-headed monster at running back in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.
The offensive line is unproven, but on the defensive side of the ball, the Bulldogs return their entire front seven and a secondary chalked full of seniors. Kirby Smart is a defensive mastermind and the Bulldogs will be vastly improved in year number two.
Prediction: Georgia 41-24
Louisville
I still enjoy walking by the Governors Cup trophy in the Joe Craft Football Training Center outside Kroger Field. The Wildcats, led by a career game from quarterback Stephen Johnson, shocked the Cardinals with a 41-38 victory in last season’s annual battle. Kicker Austin MacGinnis sent the game winner through the uprights with less than 20 seconds remaining on the clock.
One could argue that the Wildcats should have a three game winning streak in the series after blowing back-to-back double digit leads in 2015 and 2016. Lamar Jackson, the reigning Heisman trophy winner, returns to lead the Cardinal offense.
We will see what encore Jackson has in 2017; however, I do not think it will be enough to beat the Cats in Kroger Field. The Cats extend the streak to two games and the Governors Cup will stay where it’s at, inside a glass case at the Joe Craft Football Training Center.
Prediction: Kentucky 38-31
Final Prediction: Overall 9-3, SEC 5-3
