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History isn’t on Kentucky’s Side if they Finish Below .500 in SEC Play

by
Shawn Smith
February 17, 2018

Photo by Quinn Foster, courtesy of UK Athletics

If the season ended today, the Kentucky Wildcats would be in the NCAA tournament field as a No. 8 seed, according to Joe Lunardi, but with five games remaining in the regular season, they can still play their way out if recent struggles continue.

One thing the selection committee takes into consideration is how a team is trending late in the season. The Wildcats are in the midst of their worst losing streak in ten years, losing four in a row to Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Auburn. Next up for Kentucky is the Alabama Crimson Tide, who Joe Lunardi has in the tournament as a projected No. 6 seed.

Kentucky’s current four-game losing streak has dropped their SEC record to below .500 on the season, something that could cost the Wildcats if they are to finish with a losing record in conference play.

As for a lesson in SEC history, only four times has a team that finished below .500 in conference play, gone onto make it to the NCAA tournament without winning the conference tournament. Alabama did it twice (82-83, 02-03), Arkansas once (06-07), and LSU once (86-87).

The Wildcats currently sit at 6-7 in the SEC with home games vs. Alabama (projected No. 6 seed), Missouri (projected No. 7 seed), and Ole Miss still to play, in addition to road trips to Arkansas (projected No. 10 seed) and Florida (projected No. 6 seed).

So, with four games remaining vs. teams that are considered to be currently in the NCAA tournament, the Wildcats have their work cut out for them. Mixed in with those four teams is the matchup with Ole Miss, who just announced that head coach Andy Kennedy will step down at the end of the season. Expect the Rebels to play inspired basketball for their coach when they enter Rupp Arena in less than two weeks, which means there are no for sure wins remaining on the schedule.

The Wildcats desperately need a win vs. the Crimson Tide today at Rupp Arena. A loss would put the losing streak at five games with a road trip to Arkansas coming on Tuesday, a place where John Calipari has only won once during his time at Kentucky.

If Kentucky continues to stumble down the stretch and they finish 8-10 in SEC play, they most likely have to win a game or two in the SEC tournament to feel safe on Selection Sunday. If they can get to 9-9, it should punch their ticket, especially with how weak the field is this season.

The NCAA skies are still clear in Lexington right now but a loss to Alabama on Saturday and the forecast for the NCAA tournament will start to get cloudy.

According to the ESPN Power Index, Kentucky’s remaining strength of schedule rank is 49^th and they give Kentucky a 67.9 percent chance to beat Alabama at home later this afternoon. The Wildcats currently sit 39^th in the BPI.

Take a look at Kentucky’s current NCAA résumé, according to the RPI, strength of schedule, and KenPom rankings below: